![]() But remember that any model can be more accurate at any time and for any specific area, so it’s often best to look at a few models and determine which models are consistent with one another and which are outliers. The most accurate model, on average, is the European model. However, they do provide access to weather predictions worldwide. The ECMWF is generally considered the most accurate, just slightly so, than the American system. These models cover large areas and therefore are not always the most accurate when it comes to forecasting snow amounts in the high mountain peaks. The most well-known large-scale models often referred to by that knowledgeable meteorologist standing in front of a “green screen” on TV are the American GFS (Global Forecast System), the European (sometimes called the ECMWF), the Canadian (sometimes called the GEM), the UKMET (from the United Kingdom) and the American Navy’s model (FNMOC). Types of Weather Models The American GFS model is widely used by meteorologists and snow fanciers. It’s best to get a general idea of the weather patterns and then look for a more detailed, nuanced view. First, look at models that cover the globe (or a large area of it) and then look for more detailed models that cover specific geographic areas you are most interested in. You can take a big-to-small approach when looking at weather models. And you don’t have to do the computing yourself. It’s merely a simulation of the future state of the atmosphere. This code takes in current weather data, computes the answers to complicated physics equations and generates a weather forecast for hours, days, and weeks into the future. and other governments, or institutions such as the ECMWF In other words, a model is a computer algorithm which predicts the weather (the entire process is known as “Numerical Weather Prediction”), typically run on huge government computers, by the U.S. Just like Microsoft Word or your favorite video game, a weather model is made of special code that is run by a computer. Actually, weather models are quite simple to explain: They are computer programs. The term “weather model” is not very helpful and makes it seems like there’s a black box of wizard-like technology that somehow predicts the weather. Knowing the right models to look at can help you read between the lines of the forecast and find those blue sky days, even those with fresh powder awaiting you. ![]() Most of the data used by meteorologists are widely available online. I still hate forecasting it, though.Weather forecasters often talk about the computer models they use to help predict snow, but are they just for the pros? Not at all. Your mileage may vary, but accumulation amounts now have real-world usefulness. The mathematical integration of physics is better honed. The grid points and time steps are closer together. One reason we’ve gotten better is through improved computer modeling: We can now look at the atmosphere a little more finely. Measuring every hour, without giving the snow time to settle will give a higher amount than measuring every six. Snowflakes fill gaps in the snow pile as they fall. Officially it’s measured off the ground on a “snow board,” usually a large piece of plywood. ![]() When and how you measure snow affects the final total, too. The form it falls in obviously changes how much snow ends up on the ground. What starts in the clouds as snow can fall as sleet, rain, freezing rain, or even graupel (snowflakes pocked with rime ice). Most of the time the atmosphere warms as the flakes fall … but not always. So we forecast the amount of water, then how that water will act as it drops.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |